Okay, so I decided to look into a Derrick White prop bet the other day. It wasn’t anything super scientific, just had a hunch based on watching the last few Celtics games. He seemed pretty active, you know?
My Process Started Simple
First thing I did, I just pulled up his basic stats from the last, say, five or ten games. Didn’t dig too deep into crazy analytics or anything. Just wanted to see the raw numbers – points, assists, rebounds, maybe his three-point attempts. Just getting a feel for his recent rhythm.
Then, I looked at who they were playing next. This is pretty key, I think. Some teams just guard guys like him tougher, or maybe they play at a pace that doesn’t suit his style. I spent a bit of time thinking about the specific defenders he might face. Would they put their best guy on him? Or would he get the easier assignment?
- Checked his points per game recently.
- Looked at opponent’s defense vs guards.
- Considered game pace.
- Checked injury report – see if other key guys were playing. This sometimes changes his role.
I also glanced at the betting lines themselves. Saw what the main number was for his points, or maybe assists. Sometimes the line itself tells you something, or at least confirms if your hunch is way off base compared to what the bookies think.
Making the Call
After looking through that stuff, maybe took me 15-20 minutes, I had a better picture. Didn’t want to overthink it too much. You can go down a rabbit hole with stats forever. I saw the line for his points was set at something like 14.5. Based on his recent run and the matchup, I felt like he’d probably get over that.
So, I decided to go with the Over 14.5 points for Derrick White. Just put a small wager on it. Didn’t bet the farm or anything, just enough to make watching the game a little more interesting.
How It Went Down
Watched the game later that night. He started off okay, hit a three early. Then he went quiet for a bit in the second quarter. You know how it goes. You start second-guessing yourself. But then he got more involved in the second half, hit a few more shots.
In the end, he finished with something like 17 points, I think? So, the bet actually cashed. Felt pretty good, not gonna lie. Not because of the money, really, but because the little bit of homework I did seemed to point in the right direction this time. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn’t. Just gotta have a process you stick to, even a simple one like this. That was my little practice run with the Derrick White prop for that game.
